From Gary Yane comes a question that launched a million flips:
I have in my possession 1 million fair coins. Before you ask, these are not legal tender. Among these, I want to find the “luckiest” coin.
I first flip all 1 million coins simultaneously (I’m great at multitasking like that), discarding any coins that come up tails. I flip all the coins that come up heads a second time, and I again discard any of these coins that come up tails. I repeat this process, over and over again. If at any point I am left with one coin, I declare that to be the “luckiest” coin.
But getting to one coin is no sure thing. For example, I might find myself with two coins, flip both of them and have both come up tails. Then I would have zero coins, never having had exactly one coin.
What is the probability that I will — at some point — have exactly one “luckiest” coin?
I looked at ending scenarios.
0 coins remaining results in not finding the luckiest coin.
1 coins remaining results in it being the luckiest coin.
2 coins remaining yields 3 possibilities.
Note that because 2 heads leads back to this scenario, there are actually only 2 possibilities.
2 coins remaining results in $\dfrac{2}{3}$ chance of a luckiest coin.
Similar to above,
Using the number of coins and the probability of getting a single lucky coin yields the following expected value for 3 coins
$\dfrac{1}{7}\cdot(0) + \dfrac{3}{7}\cdot(1) + \dfrac{3}{7}\cdot(\dfrac{2}{3}) = \dfrac{5}{7}$
3 heads remaining results in $\dfrac{5}{7}$ chance of a luckiest coin.
Here is a recursive general form for $c$ coins.
Using the number of coins and the probability of getting a single lucky coin yields the following expected value for $c$ coins
$$L(c) = \sum_{h=0}^{c-1} \dfrac{c!}{(c-h)!h!(2^c-1)} \cdot L(h)$$The following begins to show the asymptotic behavior of $L(c)$:
$c$ | $L(c)$ | Decimal Approx. |
---|---|---|
$0$ | $0$ | $0$ |
$1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
$2$ | $\dfrac{2}{3}$ | $\approx 0.6666667$ |
$3$ | $\dfrac{5}{7}$ | $\approx 0.7142857$ |
$4$ | $\dfrac{76}{105}$ | $\approx 0.7238095$ |
$5$ | $\dfrac{471}{651}$ | $\approx 0.7238095$ |
$6$ | $\dfrac{470}{651}$ | $\approx 0.7219662$ |
$7$ | $\dfrac{2839}{3937}$ | $\approx 0.7211074$ |