Can You Find The Luckiest Coin?

Riddler Classic

From Gary Yane comes a question that launched a million flips:

I have in my possession 1 million fair coins. Before you ask, these are not legal tender. Among these, I want to find the “luckiest” coin.

I first flip all 1 million coins simultaneously (I’m great at multitasking like that), discarding any coins that come up tails. I flip all the coins that come up heads a second time, and I again discard any of these coins that come up tails. I repeat this process, over and over again. If at any point I am left with one coin, I declare that to be the “luckiest” coin.

But getting to one coin is no sure thing. For example, I might find myself with two coins, flip both of them and have both come up tails. Then I would have zero coins, never having had exactly one coin.

What is the probability that I will — at some point — have exactly one “luckiest” coin?

Solution

I looked at ending scenarios.

0 coins

0 coins remaining results in not finding the luckiest coin.

1 coin

1 coins remaining results in it being the luckiest coin.

2 coins

2 coins remaining yields 3 possibilities.

Note that because 2 heads leads back to this scenario, there are actually only 2 possibilities.

2 coins remaining results in $\dfrac{2}{3}$ chance of a luckiest coin.

3 coins

Similar to above,

Using the number of coins and the probability of getting a single lucky coin yields the following expected value for 3 coins

$\dfrac{1}{7}\cdot(0) + \dfrac{3}{7}\cdot(1) + \dfrac{3}{7}\cdot(\dfrac{2}{3}) = \dfrac{5}{7}$

3 heads remaining results in $\dfrac{5}{7}$ chance of a luckiest coin.

c coins

Here is a recursive general form for $c$ coins.

Using the number of coins and the probability of getting a single lucky coin yields the following expected value for $c$ coins

$$L(c) = \sum_{h=0}^{c-1} \dfrac{c!}{(c-h)!h!(2^c-1)} \cdot L(h)$$

The following begins to show the asymptotic behavior of $L(c)$:

$c$ $L(c)$ Decimal Approx.
$0$ $0$ $0$
$1$ $1$ $1$
$2$ $\dfrac{2}{3}$ $\approx 0.6666667$
$3$ $\dfrac{5}{7}$ $\approx 0.7142857$
$4$ $\dfrac{76}{105}$ $\approx 0.7238095$
$5$ $\dfrac{471}{651}$ $\approx 0.7238095$
$6$ $\dfrac{470}{651}$ $\approx 0.7219662$
$7$ $\dfrac{2839}{3937}$ $\approx 0.7211074$

Answer

The answer seems to be near 0.721348

Rohan Lewis

2022.02.21

Code can be found here.